The State of Illinois is on the verge of adopting the California Air Resources Board (CARB) emission standard, House Bill 1634, sponsored by Democrat Representatives Gonzalez of Chicago, Rohr of Naperville, and Morgan of Highwood. If this legislation is adopted, it would require all vehicles sold in Illinois by 2035 to be zero-emission vehicles (ZEV, electric vehicles), and that diesel engine vehicles with a model year of 2010 and older and weighing over 14,000 pounds will be banned from Illinois highways unless you change the engine for a newer-model engine.

ZEV is a misnomer because the vehicles require electricity generated by a power plant that is not zero emissions. The CARB emission standard requires that the Illinois electrical infrastructure be upgraded to handle all the new electric vehicles; therefore, more charging stations, more power plants, or the purchase of a significant amount of electricity.

The legislation offers subsidies for purchasing electric vehicles and installing electrical charging stations at a person's residence, but it offers no specifics, meaning that the subsidies may not happen. There is no subsidy for increased insurance costs or maintenance associated with an electric vehicle. There is no subsidy for paying for a tow truck to bring your vehicle to a charging station. The CARB standard also places additional demands, such as minimum warranty and battery replacement requirements, on electric vehicles, which will increase their cost.

The CARB standard is alleged to have economic benefits, assuming gasoline prices are $4 or higher. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the projected nationwide average gasoline price per gallon will be $2.89 from 2026 to 2040. If the current administration is voted out, gasoline prices will probably be lower than projected, reducing the alleged benefit of this legislation. Typically, prices in California are much higher than in other states, suggesting that the economic benefit of this CARB legislation may not exist in Illinois.

The benefit of the CARB standard is also based on the social cost of carbon, which is a nebulous figure. Social costs are often based on projections of opinion rather than any scientific methodology, which tends to degrade the alleged benefit of the standard. The estimated economic impact of the rule in California is a loss of 85,000 jobs in retail trade, automotive maintenance and repair, and a reduction of $8.9 billion in California’s gross state product.

There will be a significant adverse economic impact in Illinois if this legislation is passed. It is interesting to note that unelected bureaucrats in the State of California are dictating policy to Illinois residents without any hearings or discussion of the legislation's impact on Illinois.

The federal government is expected to consider its own new vehicle emission standards for 2027 and beyond. It is possible that the federal government may also adopt parts of the CARB standard.

So, what do we do? The best thing is to get our legislative leaders to kill House Bill 1634. If this does not work, then vote for an administration that does not allow California to dictate emission standards to other states. If that does not work, it may be prudent, if one plans to remain in Illinois, to purchase a reliable gas or diesel-powered vehicle in 2034 and drive it as long as you can.